"Israeli" Army: PA's collapse will lead to an Intifada

(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) -  A deep division between the political level and the "Israeli" army regarding the future of the Palestinian Authority; "disintegration of authority scenario" was presented before the "Israeli" army command and the political echelon , as defined in one of the documents, in the light of the difficult economic situation of the Palestinian Authority. In the discussions that took place in the leadership of the central region, between the defense minister and the prime minister, the issue which may lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority was discussed and what will be the consequences of such developments.

The estimate of intelligence in the "Israeli" army since many months is that the Palestinian Authority constitutes an important impediment to any terrorist attack and must be supported.

Therefore, according to the intelligence estimate, the disintegration of authority, frees the terrorist incentives of the Palestinian people. In the scenario, which has recently been submitted to the GOC central command Nitzan Alon, it has been claimed that the meeting of conditions such as the destruction of illegal Palestinian buildings in the southern Hebron Hills, and non-payment of wages to the workers of the Palestinian Authority, may inflame the region.

According to the scenario, in case of breaching the public order, the president of the Palestinian Authority, Abu Mazen won't be able to halt terrorism. Instead, "Dayton forces" that combats terrorism will be dispersed. In addition, this will allow the organization to return to its terrorist activities and gives moral and verbal support to break into the region.

In such a case, according to the "Israeli" army, suicidal terrorism operations in the popular centers in the cities of "Israel" will be renewed, infiltration will return to the settlements and shooting ambushes on the streets. In addition, there will be massive demonstrations throughout Judea and Samaria. According to estimates by the Israeli army, Abu Mazen will not try to pressure the wave of terrorism, but "will join that wave, as Yasser Arafat did in the second intifada, as he will also reject the pressures of the United States of America.


Political echelon divided

To improve the economic situation of the Palestinian Authority, Israel has recently taken a number of important steps. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, in his letter to the international Quartet companies said that "Israel" gave the Palestinian Authority a deposit of $ 45 million, at the expense of future tax revenues. In addition, the number of Palestinians who receive permission to work inside the Green Line has significantly increased, and new commercial agreement that increases the Palestinian Authority revenues from taxes is signed.

However, at the political level, officials are divided over the IDF estimate which says that the Palestinian Authority is the obstacle to the explosion of terrorist attacks.

Ministers in the Cabinet believe that the position of the Palestinian Authority within the Palestinian people is not respected and that its struggle with terrorism is only limited. Makor Rishon, a senior minister said that "since the establishment of the Palestinian Authority no one was trialed for hurting Jews because of this misdemeanor."

Another senior minister said, "The army is issuing wrong estimates regarding the Palestinian arena and these mistakes are becoming chronic. Only a year and a half ago the Israeli army recommended the political echelon to cede the Golan Heights to reach a quick settlement with Assad, arguing that peace with Syria is a national interest that is more important than the continuous control over the Golan Heights . Two weeks before the fall of Mubarak, the heads of security in Aman in the Knesset's Committee of foreign affairs and security estimated that the Egyptian regime will survive and everything is under control. The army better make sure of the expectations provided by the political level before the disengagement from Gaza. As in those cases, now the army estimates with regard to the Palestinian issue and the "Israeli" national interest are a big mistake. "

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